（外脑精华·北京）众多因素推动小麦价格创新高

　　近期，小麦价格如同其他初级产品价格一样屡创新高。2月25日，在哈萨克斯坦政府宣布对小麦征收出口关税之后，顶级小麦价格在一天之内就暴涨25%，创下了历史最高价和单日最大涨幅两项记录。在明尼阿波利斯粮食交易所，用于制作面包的春麦价格上涨4.75美元/蒲式耳，升至24美元/蒲式耳。至此，其价格几乎比1月份翻了一番，并对其他食品产生了广泛的连锁效应。推动小麦价格飙升的因素是多方面的，而其中多项动力都没有减退的迹象：

　　――澳大利亚、欧盟、加拿大和乌克兰的旱灾以及世界其他地区的反常恶劣天气影响了小麦供应。

　　――随着巴西、印度、韩国和埃及需求的增长，世界小麦消费量连年高于产量，小麦库存已降至30年来的最低水平，库存－消费比率则降至约18%的历史低点。

　　――面对高昂的价格，进口国并未退缩，而是纷纷购买小麦充实本国储备，以免出现短缺。近日，土耳其和伊拉克都宣布了这方面的举措。中国也在补充库存，以弥补恶劣天气对本国生产的影响。

　　――目前，一些国家的政府采取了降低进口关税或加强出口限制的措施，以保证国内供应。

　　生产国纷纷限制出口

　　――哈萨克斯坦。哈萨克斯坦是优质小麦的主要出口国之一，2007年产量为2200万吨。该国在为依赖其供应的邻国提供小麦的同时，本应能够轻而易举地实现350万吨的国内供应目标。然而，在其他产粮国因旱灾而出现小麦供应不足之际，哈萨克斯坦的私人小麦生产者争相出口，以从中获利，于是该国的小麦价格也扶摇直上。在小麦价格猛涨的推动下，该国的通胀率已增至20%。据哈萨克斯坦农业部长估算，到目前为止，该国小麦出口量就已接近今年可供出口量的70%。面包价格的攀升已经在该国引发了抗议活动，邻国的面包供应也呈紧缺之势。针对这种情况，哈萨克斯坦政府提高了国内小麦的政府收购价，并对粮食出口采取了限制措施。此外，还有人提议对粮食生产实行国有化。目前，该国70%的粮食产量为私人企业所控制。

　　――俄罗斯和乌克兰。在独联体之中，俄罗斯和乌克兰是两个关键的小麦生产国，目前两国都出现了粮食短缺。这种情况下，两国都采取了出口限制措施。2008年1月，俄罗斯对小麦实施了40%的出口关税，并禁止向其关税同盟的伙伴国白俄罗斯和哈萨克出口，以免它们进行再出口。乌克兰则为2007年11月1日－2008年3月31日的时期设定了240万吨的出口限额。2007年年中，哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰都表示，支持俄罗斯提出的创建“粮食欧佩克”的设想，但该设想尚无重大举措。

　　――阿根廷。阿根廷通常是世界第四大小麦出口国，但该国已于2007年11月决定削减出口，以确保国内供应、抑制通胀、以及缓解反常严冬的影响。1月份，阿根廷宣布恢复小麦和玉米出口登记，但每个月只有40万吨的出口限额。日前该国又决定，3月17日之前禁止出口商装运小麦。

　　――中国。中国在取消13%的出口退税之后，中国又对小麦出口加征了20%的出口关税，对小麦面粉和淀粉加征了25%的出口关税。近期的恶劣天气加剧了该国的粮食供应问题。

　　――巴基斯坦。为控制国内价格，巴基斯坦禁止了除政府机构出口之外的全部小麦出口。

　　小麦供应面临多方面困难

　　如上所述，许多国家之所以限制出口，要么是为了应对本国的歉收，要么是为了缓解歉收国家需求猛增的影响。过去一年之中，许多重要小麦生产国都出现了歉收，而且短期之内，很多国家的情况无望好转。

　　就美国而言，最新报告显示，小麦的生长情况不容乐观。在堪萨斯、俄克拉荷马和得克萨斯三大重要产地，旱灾和种子供应不足的问题减少了硬红冬小麦的种植面积。总体而言，冬小麦的种植面积仅增长了4%，而先前的预期增幅则是8%。虽然软红冬小麦和白小麦的种植面积分别增长了21%和7%，但大草原地区硬红冬小麦的种植面积减少了1%。

　　世界各地的天气情况也较为不利。阿根廷的小麦在花期曾两次遭受冰冻天气的打击。在澳大利亚，接连不断的旱灾也影响了小麦生产，目前其产量已经减少了700万吨。加拿大的小麦出口也出现了大幅下降，原因包括其国内减产、美国小麦构成的激烈竞争、以及美元贬值的影响。此外，生物柴油需求的增长导致了油籽价格的强劲上涨。这种情况下，2007年有部分耕地转产加拿大双低油菜（canola）。今后，该作物将继续与小麦争夺耕地。

　　在巴基斯坦和印度，由于甘蔗的收割出现问题，因此小麦播种时间比最佳播种期推迟了两周。预计黑海国家的小麦种植面积将增长20%，但上文所述出口限制措施将抑制其出口。中国小麦主产区的恶劣天气已经对其小麦生产造成了一定损害，该国今年很可能会增加进口，而且已经采取了出口限制措施。

　　虽然推动小麦价格上涨的许多因素将持续下去，但近期之内，一些新动向有助于改善市场供求失衡局面。首先，就种植方面而言，欧盟已暂停其“休耕补助”政策，因此其小麦播种面积可望增长10%。其次，海运运价出现了大幅下跌，这将对出口增长产生一定的积极影响。第三，预计加拿大小麦局和澳大利亚小麦局的职能调整也会对出口产生影响。第四，由于生物燃料产量的增长，目前玉米和大豆价格仍然保持高位；然而，由于巴西的大豆丰收、中国进口的下降以及原油价格回落，预计大豆价格也将缓慢回落。当然，生物燃料作物的价格将对小麦市场产生明显的影响。

　　需求增长推动价格长期攀升

　　很显然，一些一次性因素抑制了当前的小麦供应，但另一方面，小麦及其他食品需求的无休止增长所构成的挑战是不容忽视的。需求增长的动力在很大程度上来自亚洲和其他发展中国家的高速经济增长、人口增长，以及消费模式的变化。富足消费者的肉类消费量往往远高于贫穷消费者，而肉类生产（包括饲料生产）需要的土地面积远大于直接生产口粮所需的土地面积。

　　就此而言，中国构成的需求挑战最严重。首先，该国以仅占世界总量7%的土地养活了世界22%的人口。而且，在肉、蛋、奶制品需求猛增的同时，缺水问题加大了中国的增产难度。除非出现严重的食品短缺或食品价格暴涨，否则食品需求迅速增长的势头很难发生转变。

　　在需求方面，还必须考虑到生物燃料需求的爆炸性增长。由于油价屡创新高，加之石油供应面临自然条件和地缘政治方面的限制，因此用粮食生产乙醇的吸引力大为增加。而且，许多国家的政府都积极鼓励这种生产，理由在于设想中的有利于气候的效应。尤其是美国政府，在为玉米乙醇提供补贴方面表现得尤为积极。这种情况意味着，各种作物对耕地的争夺将更趋激烈，而小麦的产量将下降。耕地的争夺加快了亚马逊以及其他地区森林的砍伐、加剧了气候变化以及大量其他环境问题。

　　食品价格持久上涨影响广泛

　　哈萨克斯坦对小麦征收出口关税的决定凸显了小麦市场令人担忧的走势。导致小麦价格创新高的部分因素是暂时性的――歉收或许不会屡屡出现，而且许多政府正在采取措施增加出口。长远来看，在政策和市场两方面因素的推动下，技术进步和土地管理的改进也有助于产量增长。

　　然而，鉴于需求将持续高涨，所谓几十年来的“廉价食品时代”已经终结的观点确实具有一定的说服力。这种时代转变意味着，发达国家将面临通胀问题，而最贫困国家有可能面临灾难。最近，联合国已经对贫困和营养不良加剧的前景提出了警告。国际社会应协调行动，以提高农业生产率，并抑制生物燃料等食品需求推动力的发展势头。未来几年间，许多食品价格将趋于稳定，但其稳定价位将大大高于消费者过去所习惯的水平。

　　英文原文：

Kazakhstan's decision to impose export tariffs on wheat, echoing moves by the likes of Russia, Argentina, China, Pakistan, and Ukraine, has pushed prices still higher and fuelled concerns about the global economic, social, and environmental consequences.

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Top-quality wheat prices hit a record high yesterday after seeing their greatest ever one-day increase on the back of the Kazakh announcement.

Implications

There are many factors behind rising wheat costs in addition to the export restrictions, such as low accumulated stocks, little acreage expansion in key countries, and weather conditions. Over the longer term key factors behind the rise of wider grain and food prices include the rapid growth in meat consumption in developing countries and the shift to biofuels.

Outlook

In the near term some of the wheat supply constraints will ease as planting is increased in the European Union and exports are boosted from the likes of Canada and Australia, but given the huge demand pressures, grain prices and supply will undoubtedly be a major preoccupation for policymakers over coming decades.

All-Time High

As with other commodities, the wheat market has seen some of its highest prices in recent times. Yesterday alone saw prices of top-quality wheat surge 25% to a new all-time high. Spring wheat, which is used to bake bread, was up US$4.75 to US$24 a bushel at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. This is almost double the price seen in January and has wide knock-on effects across other foods. A combination of many factors is behind the surge in prices, and on many of these fronts there is no sign of a respite:

-- Droughts in Australia, the European Union, Canada, and Ukraine, as well as exceptionally severe winter weather elsewhere, have affected supply.

-- When coupled with increased demand from Brazil, India, South Korea, and Egypt, the stock-to-use ratio dipped to an all-time low of about 18%.

-- Demand for food has reached an all-time high, with world consumption continuing to surpass production, and wheat stocks now at their lowest level in 30 years.

-- High prices have not deterred importers from purchasing wheat to build up domestic reserves on order to avoid domestic shortages. Countries announcing such moves in recent days include Turkey and Iraq. China is also looking to build up stockpiles to make up for the impact of extreme weather on its production.

-- Finally, several national governments are erecting policies to either reduce import tariffs or increase export restrictions to protect domestic supplies （see below）.

Curbing Exports

-- Kazakhstan: One of the world's top exporters of high-quality grain, and with 22 million tons collected in 2007, Kazakhstan should have easily met the domestic supply target of 3.5 billion tons, as well as provided for the neighbours in the region who all rely on Kazakh grain. Yet, as private producers rushed to cash in on the wheat shortages caused by severe droughts in other grain-producing countries, domestic grain prices skyrocketed. This helped push inflation to up to 20%. Agriculture Minister Akhmetzhan Esimov estimates that Kazakhstan has already exported nearly 70% of the amount available for export this year, leaving the domestic elevators with some 5.5 million tons of grain. A protest rally has been held against the rising bread prices, while bread shortages have become tangible in the neighbouring states. The Kazakh government's response has been to increase state purchasing prices from domestic producers and to limit grain exports to some three million tons for the current period. There are also talks about the possibility of nationalisation of grain production, which is currently 70% owned by private companies.

-- Russia and Ukraine: Grain shortages are also troubling these two other key producers in the CIS region, both of which have introduced restrictive measures on export. Russia imposed a 40% export duty on wheat, while also prohibiting its sales to Customs Union partners Belarus and Kazakhstan for fear of re-export in January 2008. Ukraine has capped its export limit to 2.4 million tons for the period of 1 November 2007 to 31 March 2008. Both Kazakhstan and Ukraine supported the Russian proposition to create a "grain OPEC" in mid-2007, but no steps of note have yet been taken.

-- Argentina is usually the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter, but it decided to cut exports in November 2007 to ensure domestic supplies, to curb inflation and to respond to the effects of an unusually cold winter. The country announced in January that it would partially reopen its wheat- and corn-export registry, but only a maximum of 400,000 tonnes will be available for export each month. Hopes that restrictions would be lifted last week were dashed, however, after a new resolution that prevented exporters registering wheat shipments for loading until 17 March.

-- China has imposed an export tax of 20% on wheat exports and 25% on wheat flour and starch exports, while cancelling the initial rebate of 13%. The recent extreme weather has added to the country's supply problems.

-- Pakistan has banned all exports of wheat except exports by government-controlled agencies in order to control domestic prices.

Supply Difficulties

As noted above many of the export restrictions have been in response to poor domestic harvests （or at least the impact of skyrocketing demand from other countries with supply problems）. Poor harvests have been a problem for many key producers over the past year. The immediate outlook for many is not much better either.

For the United States, recent reports indicate less-than-optimistic growing conditions. Drought and shortage of seed supplies reduced the planted area of hard red winter （HRW） wheat in the key producing states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Overall, planted area for winter wheat increased by only 4%, compared with a previously expected 8%. While the soft red winter wheat area and white wheat area increased by 21% and 7%, respectively, the HRW wheat area actually declined by 1% in the high plain regions.

Weather conditions around the world have also been less than favourable. The wheat crop in Argentina was hit by freezing weather twice during the flowering season. While the government has not changed the size of the harvest, wheat exports, which were temporarily suspended, are expected to resume in mid-February. Consecutive droughts in Australia have also affected its wheat production, down 7 million tonnes already. Canadian wheat exports have been reduced considerably due to a significant drop in domestic production and fierce competition from U.S. supplies, and a weak U.S. dollar. Strong oilseed prices due to world biodiesel demand caused an acreage shift toward canola in 2007, and will continue to compete aggressively for acreage in the 2008 growing season and beyond.

In Pakistan and India, wheat planting has been delayed two weeks past the optimal period, due to problems with sugar-cane harvesting. Plantings in the Black Sea countries are expected to increase by 20%, but this is tempered by the export restrictions described above. Extreme conditions in China's major main wheat-growing area have resulted in some damage, and more imports are likely this year. That country has also restricted exports, as already mentioned.

While many of the upward pressures on wheat prices are here to stay, some recent developments should have a positive impact on the wheat market in the near term. On the planting side, the EU has opened its "set-aside"; as a result, wheat-planting area is expected to increase by 10%. Ocean freight rates are much lower than before, and should have some positive impact on exports growth. Changes in the functioning of the Canadian Wheat Board （CWB） and Australian Wheat Board （AWB） are also expected to have an impact on exports. The AWB is expected to give up its monopoly status in 2008, while talks are ongoing for a similar arrangement with the CWB. The absence of wheat boards will put managers and producers in charge of wheat supplies and bring more transparency in the international wheat market. On the biofuels side, prices of corn and soybean remain high due to increasing biofuel production. However, prices of soybean are expected to take a slow turn due to a big Brazilian soybean crop, reduction in Chinese imports, and moderate crude oil prices. Needless to say, prices of competing biofuel crops will have a sizeable impact on the wheat market （see below for more）.

Longer-Term Demand Factors

While it is clear that there are some one-off factors at play currently restricting supply, this should not obscure the challenges posed by ever-increasing demand for wheat and other foods. This is being driven to a large extent by the rapid economic （and population） growth in Asia and other developing countries, and changing consumption patterns. Affluent societies tend to eat a lot more meat, the production of which （including feed） requires a great deal more land than direct consumption of grains. China poses the biggest demand challenge, with 22% of the world's population and only 7% of the world's farmland （according to a report in the Financial Times）. Water supply shortages are complicating its efforts to boost production, while demand for meat, eggs, and dairy products is soaring. The country's exploding urban population consumes three times as much meat as the rural population. Similar situations are being played out around the world, across Asia as well as in Latin America and the Middle East. Short of dramatic food scarcity and food price rises, it is hard to see such trends abating.

Into the mix one must also throw exploding demand for biofuels. Record oil prices and supply constraints （both natural and geopolitical） have made the production of ethanol from grains much more attractive. Many governments are moreover actively encouraging such production, highlighting the supposed climate change benefits. The United States is particularly active in subsidising the diversion of maize to biofuels. This all means greater competition for fertile land and lower wheat production. The competition for fertile land is helping accelerate deforestation in the Amazon jungle and elsewhere, adding to climate change and a host of other environmental problems.

Outlook and Implications

Kazakhstan's announcement has served to highlight what were already troubling wheat-market trends. Some of the factors behind the record prices are temporary－bad harvests will hopefully not be repeated and a number of governments are moving to boost their exports. Over the longer term too, improvements in technology and land management, driven both by policies and market forces, will also help. However, with demand set to continue soaring there is some merit in the argument that the "era of cheap food" seen over the past few decades is at an end. This means greater inflationary problems in developed countries, and a potentially catastrophic situation in the poorest countries. The United Nations has been warning lately of the prospects of growing poverty and malnutrition. Concerted international action is required to boost productivity （particularly in the Commonwealth of Independent States） and to ease some of the demand drivers such as biofuels. Many food prices should stabilise over coming years, but at considerably higher levels than consumers have been used to.